AFTER A DECADE OF PIONNEERING LEADERSHIP IN PREDICTION MARKETS, NEWSFUTURES EVOLVES INTI LUMENOGIC
In the first decade of the 21st century, NewsFutures created one of the best-known public prediction markets and led the development of enterprise-class prediction market services.
Founded in the year 2000 by Emile Servan-Schreiber and Maurice Balick, the company was built on a vision of bringing collective intelligence to bear on predicting the future, anticipating by several years some of the revolutionary trends now tagged with the popular buzz words « Web 2.0 » and « wisdom of crowds ».
Over a decade, the NewsFutures public prediction market became home to thousands of the most experienced prediction traders in the world, and an inspiration to none other than James « Wisdom of Crowds » Surowiecki himself, who wrote in the New Yorker in 2003:
«In a sense, the NewsFutures traders are only trying to do what op-ed writers, TV pundits, and Presidential advisers attempt to do every day: predict the future. The big difference is that the markets are far more likely to be right.»
Author of The Wisdom of Crowds
NewsFutures has also led the way in providing white-label and enterprise-class prediction market and collective intelligence solutions to global media brands (like Yahoo! and USA Today), World-class companies (like Eli Lilly, and L’Oréal), and demanding governmental organizations (like the U.S. Air Force and the Texas Department of Transportation).
NewsFutures’ pioneering work has been widely covered in leading news media such as The New York Times, the Economist, BusinessWeek, Time, Newsweek, The New Yorker, The Wall Street Journal and Nature.
NewsFutures’ thought leadership has helped create a new industry that is now thriving worldwide.
2000 – Company founded. Public market goes on line just in time for the Sydney Olympics.
2001 – USAToday.com co-brands the prediction market. It is the first-ever partnership between a major US media website and a prediction market.
2002 – First B2B contract, with the french retailer FNAC.
2003 – Eli Lilly sponsors a 9-months long public market to predict trends in the pharmaceutical industry. It is the beginning of what will become the longest client-vendor relationship in the industry (on-going).
2004 – Emile Servan-Schreiber (NewsFutures), David Pennock (Yahoo!), Justin Wolfers (Wharton), and Brian Galebach (ProbabilitySports.com) publish a landmark comparative study of play-money vs. real-money markets (NewsFutures vs Tradesports/Intrade), concluding that play-money markets can be just as predictive as real-money ones. This result gives a huge credibility boost to enterprise markets, which are necessarily based on play-money.
2005 – Yahoo! licenses our prediction market source code to develop the Yahoo! Tech Buzz Game.
2006 – Emile Servan-Schreiber is invited to the World Economic Forum in Davos to discuss the value of prediction markets. Later that year, NewsFutures fields two new platforms, Competitive Forecasting and Idea Pageant to overcome some intrinsic limitations of prediction markets in an enterprise setting. The year ends with the launch of the company’s first real-money market covering the parliamentary elections in Holland in partnership with leading daily de Volkskrant.
2007 – First fielding of NewsFutures new long-term forecasting technology: the Impact Matrix. The company also launches Bet2Give, the first charity-driven real-money prediction market.
2008 – NewsFutures starts partnering with the New England Consulting Group to deliver high-stakes strategic applications of collective intelligence. Also, the University of Iowa, home of the world-famous Iowa Electronic Markets, licenses NewsFutures’ prediction market source code to develop the Iowa Electronic health Markets, the world’s most socially-valuable prediction market.
2009 – First fielding of NewsFutures’ concept-testing platform: the Concept Optimizer.
2010 – NewsFutures joins forces with two managing partners of The New England Consulting Group and evolves into Lumenogic, a leading-edge consulting firm that puts the power of collective intelligence in the hands of senior leadership.