A $3bb print media company was facing declining revenues and threats to its business model as digital media alternatives proliferated, consumer habits were changing fast, and a recession threatened to suppress advertising spending indefinitely. A new CEO had just been hired to try to reverse the decline and transform the business for renewed growth…


Facing unprecedented challenges, the new CEO urgently needs an accurate assessment of the new environment, ideas for action, and organizational alignment behind the chosen strategy.

Approach To create immediate impact and organizational alignment, we worked with the CEO to develop a strategy and action plan based on collective intelligence principles. One hundred of the top executives across regions and functions competed in a 2-weeks online challenge to assess trends, agree on key assumptions and propose initiatives to increase revenue, decrease costs and transform the culture. The participants interacted anonymously through a specially designed online platform that combined several collective intelligence technologies in order to rapidly harvest creative ideas, rank and prioritize them, and ultimately assess their true potential. The Lumenogic team customized the technology platform and managed every aspect of the process covering design, execution, analysis and recommendations.   axonableProcess Results 100% of the executive team participated; no meetings or travel required. In just two weeks, over 650 ideas were created, prioritized and synthesized into a portfolio of 13 key initiatives, representing the top 2% of the team’s collective judgment and insight. The leadership team rapidly aligned and mobilized around a strategy supported by the key initiatives. The new CEO gained the organizational insight and political equity needed to manage through change initiatives. The resulting strategy and portfolio of initiatives continue to drive performance over two years later.
It would have taken us months to gather and prioritize this much information otherwise. Participants were enthusiastic and the executive team had strong buy-in to the resulting strategic initiatives. Very successful project!»
 Senior Vice President,
Marketing & Business Transformation



The InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) operates more than 4,000 hotels in nearly 100 countries. In a world that grows ever smaller, more global and more digital, travelers’ tastes and needs evolve rapidly, forcing IHG to innovate constantly or lose out to the competition.


Zubin Dowlaty, IHG’s vice president for emerging technologies, was looking for ways that new web technologies could help improve IHG’s innovation process. He was acutely aware that – as is typical within large organizations – the enormous creative potential of IHG’s human resource went largely unexploited for lack of an efficient outlet. «We wanted to tap the creative class that may not be able to voice their ideas,» Mr. Dowlaty explained to the New York Times.

Approach We designed a prediction market to help Mr. Dowlaty harvest and prioritize the best ideas that IHG’s 1,000-strong technology staff could think of to improve the customer experience. Called “The Idea Pageant”, the market encouraged the participants to submit ideas (harvesting) and also to bet on the best and worst ideas (prioritization). The ideas were submitted anonymously, with a description and the benefit to customers and company. For the betting game, the participants were given virtual tokens, each receiving 10 green tokens to be placed on the best ideas and three red for bad ideas. There were no limits on the number of times bettors could change their wagers as new ideas came to market, and the market was open for four weeks. The rewards for suggesting great ideas and betting correctly on them were both social and material: The five top ideas (most green tokens), five bottom ideas (most red) and the top five bettors (most accurate, according to market consensus) were listed regularly. The overall winner would receive $500, while second- and third-place finishers would receive $250 each.


  • More than 200 people participated, submitting 85 ideas.
  • The winners were engineers, analysts and contractors, not managers.
  • The winning ideas were suggestions to improve searching the company’s Web site to find and book hotel rooms, and two projects have been implemented as a result.
  • One of the winning ideas involved such an innovative integration of Google Maps that Google even wrote a case study about it…
  • The resulting strategy and portfolio of initiatives continue to drive performance over two years later.
Compared to polling people, this significantly improves the process of harvesting and prioritizing ideas.»
Vice President, Emerging Technologies
 InterContinental Hotels Group



The client company – the leader in its field – provides food products to the globally traded markets. Its ability to anticipate the evolution of market prices is therefore essential.


When, after many years of relative stability, the market prices of its products suddendly shot up due to exploding demand in emerging countries (see chart), all forecasting models based on historical data – looking backwards – became obsolete. As a result, the company’s ability to forecast future market prices was greatly challenged. Casting about for a new forecasting method, the company decided to try to leverage the collective insights of its own traders…

Approach We designed an online prediction market to gather and consolidate the informed guesswork of the company’s many traders and other stakeholders into hard forecasts. The so-called “Competitive Forecasting” platform invited the participants to forecast the average quarterly market price of four different products 3, 6, 9 and 12 months into the future. To make a forecast, a participant would select a product and a specific quarter, then use a friendly slider on the screen to enter a high-low price range. The participants would earn points based on how accurate their forecasts were and how early they made them, so in order to win the most points one not only had to be right, but also had to be right before others. The forecasts were made anonymously and could be changed at any time in response to new information. At the end of every quarter, the accuracy of the participants forecasts for that quarter would be assessed and the winners rewarded with cash prizes. The platform dynamically averaged the latest forecasts of all the participants, and provided company executives with a real-time dashboard of 16 collective forecasts of market prices for its four products over the next four quarters.   cfResults

Results Our competitive forecasting market was one of five forecasting methods that the company was combining in a weighted average to compute its final forecasts. At first, the collective forecast weighed for just 20% on the final forecast, but it proved so good compared to the four other methods that, after just a year of testing and evaluation, the company bumped its weight up to 50%.

We have enjoyed working with the Lumenogic team in delivering a forecasting system to Fonterra. Fonterra has repeatedly expressed its satisfaction with the results produced by Lumenogic.»
(University of Victoria, New Zealand)

Lumenogic has more than a decade of experience helping companies

tap their collective intelligence through prediction markets,

innovation competitions and other means.


© Lumenogic, 2017 www.charlotte-et-charlotte.com